Category Archives: earthquakes and volcano activity

1/15/2018 — Global Earthquake Forecast —

The new global earthquake forecast has been released for this week.

Over the past 4-5 days two very large earthquakes have occurred.  Both large earthquakes occurred in the East Pacific, and are related to one another.

We must make note of the fact that the past 7 days of seismic activity has picked up in pace, and increased in power.

Above: January 15, 2018 – Past 7 days of earthquakes M4.0 and greater internationally, and M2.5+ in the United States shows a dramatic increase in seismic activity occurring on both sides of the Pacific plate. Deep earthquakes can be seen raised higher off the globe for easy identification. The large M7.0+ earthquakes are seen with large rings in the East Pacific.

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This weeks seismic outlook covers North America, Central America, the Caribbean, South America, Asia, Alaska, West + South Pacific, Eurasia, middle East, Europe, New Zealand, and the Mid-Atlantic.

Watch the most current Earthquake forecast video here:

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Here is this weeks earthquake forecast spreadsheet listing each area, and the expected magnitude:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRGET8K2FcgmGwM4_dheznlvy_HhiN8KuU9u2Bc199cKFRNj9uI2LU3ml_iPWo22Kzsp60E76a8xSKE/pubhtml


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This previous weeks forecast hit ratio was 28 hits and 12 misses  (out of a total of 40 warned locations) .

70% total accuracy.

Originally there were 38 warned locations, with 2 additions half way through the week making the total warned locations this past week an even 40.

Here is the google doc spreadsheet for the January 7, 2018 earthquake forecast:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQVQLQp103YHxlM-Kk47SkAR95842SMBLIc5voPOjbdjBETzaSPPrephvZwGHyyBT5Tbp54vTe2NXJI/pubhtml

28 out of 40 locations hit directly as expected, with an average at an even 70%.

Our “normal” weekly average is approximately 75% to 80%.

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1/14/2018 — Large M7.1 strikes Southern Peru South America — Location was warned 4 days before

Today a very large M7.1 struck South Peru.. the largest earthquake to strike the area in several years time.

4 days ago, on January 10th, we issued a warning for a large upper M6.0 to low M7.0 earthquake for South Peru.

The large earthquake which was expected in Peru has occurred.

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See the warning issued on January 10th for Peru here at about 47 minutes into the video… (agian, keep in mind, Peru has now been hit today on the 14th as expected)

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The warning for Peru was based upon on the large M7.6 which struck to the North on the Cayman Trench four days prior (Jan. 10, 2018) pushing to the South onto the South American continent.

The South American plate boundary with the Pacific came under compression, and has released with a similar sized M7.0+ earthquake within 4 days of being pushed.

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Information on the new M7.1 earthquake in Peru comes from the USGS:

2018-01-14 09:18:45 UTC
15.776°S   74.744°W
36.3 km depth

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