Tag Archives: terremoto

10/26/2016 — Large earthquake and swarm strikes Central Italy / South Europe — EQ forecast area direct hit

A series of large earthquakes measuring  M5.5 + M6.1 has struck Central Italy.  This event has now been accompanied by a noteworthy swarm of aftershocks at the same location.

Damage has been reported across the region struck by this noteworthy earthquake swarm.



Multiple earthquake warnings were issued over the past few days for this exact location in Central Italy.

The most recent official warning came 1 day prior to this earthquake striking.   The warning was issued via the earthquake forecast video issued at 10pm Central time (October 25, 2016) – seen here:


Original warning for Italy began for the week issued beginning October 19, 2016:


Following the earthquake warnings seen above, the morning of this Italy earthquake (this morning Oct 26th) a new M5.8 earthquake struck at the North Iran / South Russia border region.

When the M5.8 earthquake struck near Iran’s border, another earthquake warning was issued for Italy to be on watch for an INCREASE by a full magnitude at the warned location ( in Central Italy).

The original warning was for a M4.5 to M5.0 earthquake to strike Central Italy.

The updated warning was for M5.0 to M5.5 to strike based upon the larger activity to the East / Southeast of Italy.  Now we see that exact magnitude has struck the exact warned location.  Additionally a larger M6.1 earthquake has now struck the very same location.

As it was explained in the forecast video from a day prior to this event, the plate boundary had not moved, and was finally beginning to move again after the earthquake swarm in Greece moved an entire mountain range to the West.

The movement of the mountain range in Greece had blocked the seismic flow across the plate boundary extending throughout Italy up to Torino / South Switzerland.   After the mountain range in Greece moved 1.5cm (1/2 inch) West , a very deep M3.6 earthquake struck below the very same mountain range – occurring at over 340 miles depth (560km).

As it was explained when the deep M3.6 occurred below Greece on October 24th, this would result in the flow of seismic pressure to resume across Italy , for pressure to flow back across the plate boundary to the Northwest of Greece.

Here we are two days later, two days after the deep M3.6 below Greece, and over the past two days we’ve seen a rapid increase in M4.0+ earthquakes across Italy.

These events are indeed related.


Information on these earthquakes from the USGS:


2016-10-26 19:18:08 UTC
42.949°N   13.074°E
10.0 km depth
Magnitude 6.1 mww
Location/uncertainty 42.949°N 13.074°E± 4.2 km
Depth/uncertainty 10.0 km± 1.8
Origin Time
Number of Stations
Number of Phases 170
Minimum Distance 24.7 km (0.22°)
Travel Time Residual 0.95 s
Azimuthal Gap 21°



2016-10-26 17:10:37 UTC
42.866°N   13.056°E
10.0 km depth
Magnitude 5.5 mww
Location/uncertainty 42.865°N 13.056°E± 5.7 km
Depth/uncertainty 10.0 km± 1.9
Origin Time
Number of Stations
Number of Phases 124
Minimum Distance 5.9 km (0.05°)
Travel Time Residual 1.11 s
Azimuthal Gap 32°


10/17/2016 — Large M6.9 earthquake strikes West Pacific — Earthquake forecast hit

October 17, 2016

A large M6.9 earthquake has struck the West Pacific in the Solomon Islands in Eastern Papua New Guinea.



Papua New Guinea had a multiple day warning for large movement to strike.

PNG was a specifically warned location, one which we talked about over the past several days due to the deep M6.4 which occurred a few days ago (leading to this new shallower larger earthquake today).

See the most recent warning issued a full day prior to the earthquake (October 15 2016) here:


Information from the USGS:

2016-10-17 06:14:58 UTC
6.053°S   148.862°E
35.0 km depth
Magnitude 6.9 mwp
Location / uncertainty 6.053°S 148.862°E± 6.6 km
Depth / uncertainty 35.0 km± 1.8
Origin Time
Number of Stations
Number of Phases 142
Minimum Distance 415.6 km (3.73°)
Travel Time Residual 1.29 s
Azimuthal Gap 16°


Information from the Australian agency:


Date and Time
UTC: 17 October 2016 @ 06:14:57

Location New Britain, PNG.
Coordinates: -6.211, 149.121
Depth: 0 km

Ms: 6.8

Potentially Tsunamigenic

Solution status
Last updated: 17 October 2016 @ 17:36:22 (AEDT)


Additionally, here is the information from the German GEOPHON agency:


F-E Region: New Britain Region, P.N.G.
Time: 2016-10-17 06:15:02.8 UTC
Magnitude: 6.7 (Mw)
Epicenter: 148.80°E  6.04°S
Depth: 87 km
Status: C – confirmed