Over the course of the next 7 days, leading into Christmas day, we are expecting an increase in seismic activity across the board.
At least two M7.0+ earthquakes may occur this week, as well as multiple M6.0+ earthquakes are expected to spread out across each region.
The West Pacific has two warned locations on watch for M7.0+ seismic unrest this week. Papua New Guinea , and near Vanuatu / New Caledonia both watching for M7.0+ earthquakes to strike the middle fulcrum points forming in each region.
Areas warned for M5.9 to M6.9 range activity areas include Northwest California near Eureka , Northeastern Coast of Japan (central Japan), South Europe in Greece, Central Iran, and the Kermedec Islands near New Zealand.
Areas warned for M4.9 to M5.9 activity include Southern California near Santa Barbara, Central Italy near Norcia, Central New Zealand near Wellington, South Japan near Kyushu, Sumatra Indonesia, East Timor, Solomon Sea, Nepal, Colombia South America, Southern Mexico near the Guatemala border, and South Chile near Valpariso.
Areas warned for M3.9 to M4.9 activity include Austria / Switzerland / North Italy, Eastern Romania, Poland, Scotland, Iceland, Central California near Mammoth Mountain, Western Oklahoma near the Kansas border, West Texas near Fort Stockton, and Northern Colorado across the Western Slope + Front Range.
Areas looking for smaller swarms below M3.9 include Southern California near Anza Gap, Yellowstone Supervolcano in Northwest Wyoming, New Madrid Seismic Zone in Southern Missouri, and East coast near the New York / Quebec border.
A new “deep earthquake event” is underway across the Pacific extending as far West as Afghanistan in the Middle East. Past experience has taught us that deep earthquake events lead to shallow(er) larger earthquakes usually within 7-10 days of the deep event taking place below the plates.
Last years deep earthquake unrest in December led to three separate M8.0 (M7.9) earthquakes striking next to the deep quake locations. Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Chile were all struck 12 months ago by M8.0 earthquakes after several deep events pushed each region.
See last years update from December 25, 2016 (Christmas day) here:
Multiple locations fall under this weeks seismic warning, which is based upon the continuation of the “deep earthquake event” which is still ongoing in the West Pacific.
The graphic above shows the state of seismic unrest currently taking place in the West Pacific.
As the deep earthquakes strike below the Pacific plate, the “seismic pressure” generated from these deep events begins to transfer outwards from the deep epicenter, and begin to “flow” along the plate boundaries which are fractures extending from the surface to the very bottom of the plate just above the magma in a location called the Asthenosphere.
Once the deep earthquakes occur below the plate, a process of seismic pressure transfer is put into motion. The seismic pressure begins to spread out in all directions along the nearby plate boundaries in an attempt to reach equilibrium.
There are two forces at work, the greater force is the “seismic pressure” which induces earthquakes below , and within the crust. The lesser force are the earthquakes themselves which only cause seismic shockwaves within the crust.
The greater (deeper) seismic pressure follows a “path of least resistance” as it “flows” from the deep earthquake locations towards the “pressure termination points” on the opposite side of the planet aka the “antipode”.
Deep earthquake locations, and pressure termination points are marked with D for deep earthquakes, and X for terminations (see graphic below).
This weeks earthquake forecast is calling for multiple new deep earthquakes to carry on the “deep earthquake event” which was discussed in this weeks earthquake forecast video.
A high probability exists that multiple new deep earthquakes will be striking the D locations within the next several days. Each deep earthquake has the capability to cause a shallower larger earthquake 1-2 magnitudes larger than each deep event.
The West Pacific is watching for upper M5.0 to lower M6.0 activity to strike near Fiji / Tonga.
Further West in the Pacific the location at central Papua New Guinea into Solomon Islands should be hit again by near M6.0 or possibly a half magnitude larger. Additionally Papua New Guinea should watch to their Western border for M6.0 activity this week (PNG should be hit twice).
Southwest Pacific (New Zealand + Kermedecs to Antarctica) are on watch for M5.0 to M5.5 activity at the “catchers mitt” position on the North Island near White Island Volcano. Additionally New Zealand is on dual watch for a smaller M4.0 to M4.5 earthquake at the Cook straight extending South to the area just North of Christchurch.
The Northwest Pacific must watch the silent zones near the central Eastern Coast of Japan for upper M5.0 to upper M6.0 activity (1 full magnitude range between events within the next 7 days).
There are SIX warned locations (middle fulcrum points between previous earthquakes) which are warned in the Northwest Pacific. This is an abnormally high number of locations which need to be warned this week. All six locations should be struck by nearly the same sized earthquakes. Each location is expected to receive M5.0 to M5.3 within five days.
The center location in Japan off the Eastern coast MAY see 1 magnitude larger activity putting the warning up to M6.5 on the coast of Eastern Japan within the next 7 days.
The reason there are several locations warned this week is due to the multiple deep earthquakes which have taken place, and the pressure which will spread upwards (and outwards) in all directions from the West Pacific.
The far west Pacific is a location we are watching for major seismic unrest to unfold.
There is a current warning issued for upper M6.0 to lower M7.0 activity to strike Western Bali into Sumatra Indonesia.
In addition to Sumatra / Bali Indonesia, there are two warnings issued for areas West of the Pacific (Myanmar + North India. North India should receive the larger of the two events if current models prove accurate.
The magnitude expected in North India should be in the M6.0 range. Myanmar should receive 1 magnitude less as the pressure transfers out of the Pacific, and heads towards North India.
The Middle East must keep watch for new activity coming out of the India – China border region.
We must warn the people in Iran that another round of activity is coming this week, and it should be in the M6.0 range again (or hopefully something a few points less in the M5.0 range if luck prevails).
People in Iran should watch their NORTHERN plate boundary for activity just a bit smaller than what is going to strike North India. Iran is “down stream” along the plate boundaries from India, therefore Iran will receive the seismic force which is coming out of India as the force follows the boundaries towards Europe.
Iran should be hit within 7 days or less from the point of the warning being issued.
Europe is on watch downstream from the M4.1 / M4.6 which struck central Italy one day ago (December 3, 2017).
South Spain near Morocco + the Straight of Gibraltar should be watching for a similar sized earthquake compared to what struck in Central Italy – M4.0 to M4.5 is expected. Additionally, new activity within M0.5 (half magnitude) should strike near the English channel in France, as well as the Azores to the East of Portugal.
Ultimately Iceland should see the same sized activity which struck Italy to begin with, meaning M4.5 range impacting Iceland this week.
The European activity is expected to take place within 3 days (72 hours) from the point of the forecast being issued.
The United States, North America , Central America, and South America are on watch in the silent zones off the West coast(s), and downstream along each plate craton edge.
North America is on watch downstream from the M4.2 which struck near Vancouver BC on December 3, 2017. Central California to Southern California on watch for M4.0 to M4.5 activity on the creeping section of the San Andreas.
The Midwest United States is on watch for similar sized activity compared to what will strike in Southern California — expect M4.0 or swarm activity equal to this amount to strike Western Central Oklahoma, in addition to smaller activity striking further South in Texas at the oil + gas pumping operations near Fort Stockton, and possibly as far East as Dallas.
The East coast of the United States is on watch near Virginia for M3.0 to M3.5 activity due to M3.6 and M3.7 activity in New Mexico + Colorado earlier this week.
Are any earthquakes striking out to sea off the Western Coast of Oregon? Rumors are circulating that an offshore eruption is taking place. A viewer has reported as of yesterday (December 3, 2017) of a large influx of pumice , and lava rock washing ashore on Oregon beaches. Samples are being sent to my office here in Missouri, and video is being shot at the location.
Central America is on watch for a large (widespread) increase in magnitudes reaching from current M3.0 + M4.0 levels up by a factor of 10. Central America should see magnitudes rise to M5.0 (up to M5.9) across the whole of Mexico reaching South towards Colombia.
One single M5.9 may possibly be mixed in with the influx of other M5.0 earthquakes across the region over the next 7 days. It will be a noteworthy increase across the whole region. This widespread increase is due to the multiple rounds of deep earthquakes which have struck across the Pacific near Fiji, and Indonesia.
South America is on watch at the tips of both large red arrows (pressure transfer zones) extending from the West Pacific’s deep earthquake locations.
South America should be ready for upper M5.0 to lower M6.0 activity just like all the other locations internationally this week. The deep earthquakes near Fiji, and Tonga should have a direct effect on Chiles coast, and Colombia into Ecuador. The magnitudes expected are at least 1 full magnitude larger than the deep earthquakes across the Pacific which are putting South America into motion.
Watch for M5.5 to M6.2 to strike over the next 7 days at each location. All locations should be hit by the end of the week with the expected magnitudes.
Keep watch in the silent zones across South America, and in the Atlantic ocean to the East. All six locations should be hit by the end of the 7 day warning, and all should be hit by the expected magnitudes in the upper M5.0 range to lower M6.0.