Tag Archives: erdbeben

10/30/2016 — Largest earthquake in 30+ years strikes Central Italy — M7.1 (M6.6) and swarm hits the forecast area

A significant M7.1 (M6.6 revised) earthquake, and large swarm of subsequent M4.0+ follow up earthquakes has struck central Italy directly inside of the forecast / warned location.



This is the largest earthquake to strike Italy since 1980.

It has been over 30 years since this size magnitude has occurred, making this a “rare” event in itself.

A series of earthquake warnings was issued on October 28, 2016 , calling for M6.8 to M7.8 seismic activity to strike this exact location in central Italy.

See the publicly posted warning(s) here:

Here is a much more detailed warning for Italy from the same day (October 28, 2016 – 2 days prior to this large earthquake):


Move forward to October 30, 2016 – early in the morning Italian time (740am), and the expected large earthquake struck the exact warned location.

2016-10-30 06:40:19 UTC
42.855°N   13.088°E
10.0 km depth



As this large earthquake struck, many homes and businesses were completely destroyed.

The famous Benedictine Basilica at the center of town was wiped out as an example of the intensity of this event.

A picture from google earth shows what the Church looked like in August 2011:


Now, after this earthquake on October 30, 2016, the church lay in ruins:



This widespread destruction was due to the shallow location of the earthquake, and the proximity to the plate boundary (due East along the Eastern coast of Italy).

As shown in past videos, and website posts, the plate boundary passes directly through this location in central Italy.  The plate boundary (red line) has been put into serious flux due to incoming pressure from Turkey, and Greece.



There is a silver lining to this tragedy.

The warnings we issued were mentioned on BBC news by Janet Fullerlove while reporting on the earthquake out of central Italy!

Several people across the facebook group (dutchsinse italia), as well as Janet Fullerlove, and William Pacetti, were able to spread word around their areas as much as possible, I think this made a difference!


Special thanks to Italian viewers Janet Fullerlove , and William Pacetti who spread the warnings across the area . Thanks to their word of mouth, people slept in their cars the night before, and were mostly prepared for this earthquake to strike.

We now know for certain that injuries were AVERTED, and lives were possibly saved thanks to the warnings getting out to the people in time.

Much love to all my viewers + readers , those across the Dutchsinse Italy facebook group, and others across social media who helped spread the warning for Italy in the days leading up to this unfortunate natural disaster.

No doubt William, Janet, and the facebook group are responsible for saving lives / preventing injuries during this earthquake!  You are to be thanked, commended, and loved for what you did to help.

This is William Pacetti, one of the caring people who helped spread the word to be prepared.

I hopefully will be able to travel over to Italy in the near future (2017  or sooner?) to meet these viewers, and possibly hold an open public meeting to teach anyone who attends how to forecast an earthquake.

If you want to know the basics on “how to” forecast an earthquake, watch my free 1 hour long video showing the detailed steps involved:


10/26/2016 — Large earthquake and swarm strikes Central Italy / South Europe — EQ forecast area direct hit

A series of large earthquakes measuring  M5.5 + M6.1 has struck Central Italy.  This event has now been accompanied by a noteworthy swarm of aftershocks at the same location.

Damage has been reported across the region struck by this noteworthy earthquake swarm.



Multiple earthquake warnings were issued over the past few days for this exact location in Central Italy.

The most recent official warning came 1 day prior to this earthquake striking.   The warning was issued via the earthquake forecast video issued at 10pm Central time (October 25, 2016) – seen here:


Original warning for Italy began for the week issued beginning October 19, 2016:


Following the earthquake warnings seen above, the morning of this Italy earthquake (this morning Oct 26th) a new M5.8 earthquake struck at the North Iran / South Russia border region.

When the M5.8 earthquake struck near Iran’s border, another earthquake warning was issued for Italy to be on watch for an INCREASE by a full magnitude at the warned location ( in Central Italy).

The original warning was for a M4.5 to M5.0 earthquake to strike Central Italy.

The updated warning was for M5.0 to M5.5 to strike based upon the larger activity to the East / Southeast of Italy.  Now we see that exact magnitude has struck the exact warned location.  Additionally a larger M6.1 earthquake has now struck the very same location.

As it was explained in the forecast video from a day prior to this event, the plate boundary had not moved, and was finally beginning to move again after the earthquake swarm in Greece moved an entire mountain range to the West.

The movement of the mountain range in Greece had blocked the seismic flow across the plate boundary extending throughout Italy up to Torino / South Switzerland.   After the mountain range in Greece moved 1.5cm (1/2 inch) West , a very deep M3.6 earthquake struck below the very same mountain range – occurring at over 340 miles depth (560km).

As it was explained when the deep M3.6 occurred below Greece on October 24th, this would result in the flow of seismic pressure to resume across Italy , for pressure to flow back across the plate boundary to the Northwest of Greece.

Here we are two days later, two days after the deep M3.6 below Greece, and over the past two days we’ve seen a rapid increase in M4.0+ earthquakes across Italy.

These events are indeed related.


Information on these earthquakes from the USGS:


2016-10-26 19:18:08 UTC
42.949°N   13.074°E
10.0 km depth
Magnitude 6.1 mww
Location/uncertainty 42.949°N 13.074°E± 4.2 km
Depth/uncertainty 10.0 km± 1.8
Origin Time
Number of Stations
Number of Phases 170
Minimum Distance 24.7 km (0.22°)
Travel Time Residual 0.95 s
Azimuthal Gap 21°



2016-10-26 17:10:37 UTC
42.866°N   13.056°E
10.0 km depth
Magnitude 5.5 mww
Location/uncertainty 42.865°N 13.056°E± 5.7 km
Depth/uncertainty 10.0 km± 1.9
Origin Time
Number of Stations
Number of Phases 124
Minimum Distance 5.9 km (0.05°)
Travel Time Residual 1.11 s
Azimuthal Gap 32°